It's no surprise that Justice Stevens is retiring.   He is 90 years old.   I was hoping he would retire during the last year of the Bush years since he was appointed by a Republican president, and it looked like the next president wouldn't be a Republican.  That was the tradition anyway, to retire during the presidency of the same party that nominated you.  Of course Souter didn't either.  Both liberal disappointments.  President Ford biggest mistake in office was nominating Stevens.    He is the banner justice for bad Republican choices made for the Supreme Court.   Mistakes liberals and Democrats don't seem to make.  

So now Barry gets a SECOND choice in only his second year.   Bush had only two choices, during eight years in office, none during his first term.    Souter and Stevens should have been replaced by a Republican president, and they should have known better then to let the Obama regime replace them with new liberals.    Obama seems to have the best timing in the world on these types of things it seems.  

So another liberal will be replaced by a liberal.   The stalemate will continue for quite some time. 

The Supreme Court is more important than ever.   There are some important things coming down the road towards the court over the next couple of years.   Things that could change this country for the better or for the worse.   Obamacare, gun control,  are just some of the big fights coming soon.   Constitutional justices are needed more then ever but none will be coming from the Obama machine.  

This fight will be nasty due to the restless nation that will not tolerate another bad choice.   Even worse then  Sonia Sotomayor, the wise latina justice, who got in fairly easy (compared with Roberts and Alito).    We have yet to see how big an activist she will be on the bench.  

The biggest question is:   What if Obama gets a third choice?

As it stands now:
Scalia, Thomas, Roberts and Alito are reliable Constitutional justices.  

Stevens, Ginsburg and Breyer  are reliable liberal activist justices.  Sotomayor likely will be the reliable liberal fourth vote.

Kennedy is the wild card.   Sometimes he goes the right way,  but goes the wrong way too often. 


Who is the most likely to retire (or die) next in the Supreme Court?

The conservative wing is younger then the liberal wing.   After Stevens leaves,  liberal justice Ginsburg will be the oldest member of the court (b. 1933).    With Sotomayor  (1954) and the new justice (? likely 1950-1965) will equal out the age difference a little. Scalia will be the oldest Conservative justice (1936),  Kennedy is the same age as Scalia (1936). 

Conservatives Thomas (1948), Roberts (1955), Alito (1950) and Liberal Sotomayor (1954) aren't going anywhere anytime soon.  

That leaves Liberals Ginsburg (1933), Breyer  (1938) and Conservative Scalia and wildcard Kennedy as the oldest members.   Ginsburg is the most likely to retire next, due to illnesses she has battled in recent years.    If Obama continues to not look like he will have a second term,  look for her to bail in 2011.    Maybe even Breyer as well, if he thinks he cannot wait out a Republican president.    Scalia likely won't retire until a Republican is in office if he can help it.   Kennedy once again is the wild card,  who knows when he will want to retire.  It will be his final unknown decision of his long carrier of unknown decisions.  He was nominated by Reagan so hopefully he will follow the tradition.  But who knows with him.  

Kennedy going is going to be the mother of all supreme court battles.  Because that retirement will be the change that will finally make the balance of the court change likely for a generation.   Will that next generation be yet another liberal one, or will a reliable conservative court finally arrive?    The party that is running the White House at the time will have the upper hand on that one.  We can only hope that Kennedy will still be in when Obama goes home to Chicago.   The best we can hope for is that Breyer  and Ginsburg are left for a Republican to replace as well and if anybody retires in Obama's term it would be one of those two keeping the stalemate.   Barry will retain the liberals seats with new liberals at all costs.    Hopefully Obama won't get a chance at replacing Scalia.  That would change the balance as well. 

So back to Stevens:

It will be Scalia, Thomas, Roberts and Alito holding up the conservative side with Ginsburg, Breyer,  Sotomayor and the new justice will be the liberal end.    So little will change with this one.   Hopefully the worst left wing choices that Obama wants will be left on paper with a more "moderate" choice his pick.   So far Obama hasn't chosen the moderate way yet on anything, he seems to have not learned that from Clinton.   So I don't think any choice will fly with conservatives. 

Looks like the battle for the soul of this country is going to go on for a very long time.    That's a shame.

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