Posted by
Rich from NW Indiana on Tuesday, November 04, 2008 2:01:57 AM
My predictions scenarios for today!
One scenario is good, one not.
First scenario: A tight McCain win. He wins all the states won by Bush in 2004. He has to win most or all those states to win. This scenario works only if enough Republicans get out and vote to counteract all the new Obama voters. Possible in the red states of 2004. There are more new or returning Republican voters out there then the media would ever allow you to think. Tough but possible, many people are quite scared of an Obama presidency, including this blogger, and will get out to vote even if they aren't big McCain fans. This scenario keeps things the same electoral vote wise. Large turnouts but same ratio of electoral votes. Not the best win in the world but it will do. McCain 286 Obama 252.
Sort of a side scenario, if Pennsylvania goes McCain's way it is a big plus, giving him a better and bigger win. He cannot lose two of the following: Virginia, Ohio, and Florida. If one of those is lost, Pennsylvania has to be won (same thing if Colorado and another western state like New Mexico or Nevada is lost). The polls in places like Indiana, Colorado and VIrginia are likely bogus. McCain is leading there. This scenario counts on that Obama is more hype then actual Democratic voters. Possible due to the media love fest with Obama. McCain 307 Obama 231.
Second scenario: The not good one. Obama wins two or three states Bush won in 2004. Obama brings out Democrats in bigger numbers, or at least enough to win. The media lovefest with the Democrat candidate has finally worked after trying in 2000 and 2004. Obama wins Virginia and New Mexico for a very tight win. McCain loses even though he won Ohio and Florida. McCain 268 Obama 270.
Thats the scary thing, if McCain loses a big eastern state (Virginia, Ohio and Florida) that Bush won in 2004 he loses if if a small state in addition like New Mexico, Iowa or Nevada is lost too! He could win even if he lost one of the big three as long as no small states is lost. If he loses two of the following big eastern states he loses even if he wins all the rest of Bush's states. Another loss could happen if the three western states (Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada) are lost, even if the big three are won in the east.
So even if those three big eastern states are in the bag, its still could be bad for McCain.
Funky weird scenario: McCain wins all the states won by Bush in 2004 but loses Nevada, Iowa and New Mexico to Obama giving each candidate 269 electoral votes each. 270 is needed to win. The circus would move to Congress, not a pretty picture if that happens. McCain 269 Obama 269, Obama wins, Democratic Congress will throw it to him.
Final thoughts.
Neither candidate is going to win big. That media bit is pure crap. Forget about "landslides" for either side. I really don't see Obama running away with this election even if he wins. It going to be a nail biter. Plan on staying up late. An early indicator could be my home state of Indiana (polls close early here). It will show if the media's polls are true nonsense or not. If Obama is getting good numbers in Indiana its probably over.
However its not as bad as it could be for McCain. He could still win and by a larger amount of electoral votes then a tight Obama win. Hopefully voter fraud will not effect the way a states electoral vote goes. Thats a big if, ACORN hasn't been stopped everywhere.
One good thing that will come out of this election. Higher voter turnout. If may be the only good thing about it. If we could get better information and coverage of the election by the media it would be more fair for the majority of voters. Many Obama voters truly don't know who they are voting for. People need to learn to vote on the issues not on the emotions and rhetoric of the candidates.
So get out there and Vote For McCain-Palin!!!!!